“The polls are wrong!” Typically, this is one of the last exaltations of a losing campaign. As failing campaigns close, candidates, staffers, and all involved will do anything to convince voters that the polls aren’t exposing their weaknesses but instead are hiding their pending victory. This repetitious pattern usually works . . . until it […]
Will Kamala Harris Win?
After a bit of a break, I’m back. And I missed quite a bit. For starters, Trump has had attempts on his life. President Joe Biden dropped out of the race after a poor debate performance. RFK Jr., a third-party candidate, dropped out and lent his support to Trump. And finally, Vice President Kamala Harris […]
Can Biden Win? (2024 Election Strategy Guide)
Plainly, yes. And this is not a sarcastic or pessimistic “anything is possible” type of yes. It is a legit yes. Biden can win this election and has a fully viable path to victory. Since The Real Question is focused on analysis, data, and being realistic, you are probably wondering why I’m starting this blog […]
What Did I Learn from My Predictions?: 2020 Election Prediction Review
Quick Note: At the time of writing, I was deciding on whether to do more predictions, and this article concludes on that question. However, I decided against doing more predictions in the 2022 midterm despite good data availability. I decided not to change the original post as an editorial choice to preserve the right tone. […]
2020 Presidential Election Prediction
11/3/20 Quick Note: This is one of the predictions referenced in my “What Did I Learn from My Predictions?” post. It has not been changed, formatted, or further proofread from the document that I sent to my friends & family and pinned on my private Twitter. Summary/TL;DR: Former Vice President Joe Biden […]